Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：基金优选)

• ·SVM Summit 2025将于纽约盛大开幕，共话链上金融未来
• ·10月31日招商资管核心优势混合A净值下跌0.46%，今年来累计下跌5.87%
• ·股票好卖吗-股票好卖吗?
• ·以色列的气候怎么样-以色列的气候怎么样
• ·9月底青岛穿什么衣服-9月底的青岛穿什么衣服
• ·10月31日摩根科技前沿混合A净值下跌1.00%，近1个月累计下跌2.35%
• ·怎么备份钱包
• ·10月31日前海开源新兴产业混合A净值下跌0.24%，今年来累计下跌11.51%
• ·世界币wdc钱包设置-
• ·10月31日鹏华价值共赢两年持有期混合净值增长0.21%，近3个月累计上涨16.1%
• ·什么是区块链资产 什么是区块链资产配置
• ·10月31日海富通ESG领先股票C净值下跌0.48%，近1个月累计下跌3.79%
• ·8月份去阳朔穿什么-8月份去阳朔穿什么衣服
• ·10月31日前海开源沪港深新硬件C净值增长3.35%，近6个月累计上涨27.73%
• ·航空股票龙头
• ·10月31日永赢低碳环保智选混合发起C净值增长3.59%，近3个月累计上涨49.23%